"Indonesia's Stock Market Faces Modest Decline Amid Positive Trade Surplus and Stable Monetary Policy"

Indonesia's stock market, represented by the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), experienced a modest decline driven by the performance of several big-cap stocks. Notably, PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) witnessed a 5.49% decrease to Rp86 per share over the week, while PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) recorded a 1.28% drop to Rp9,625 per share.

However, despite the IHSG's downturn, the decline was contained due to positive data releases during the week. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) revealed a significant trade surplus for Indonesia in December 2023, amounting to US$3.3 billion. This surplus marked a substantial increase compared to November 2023, which stood at US$2.41 billion.

Pudji Ismartini, Deputy of Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, highlighted that December's surplus surpassed the previous month but was slightly lower than May 2022. The surplus was achieved as Indonesia's exports exceeded imports, with exports totaling US$22.41 billion and imports at US$19.11 billion.

This surplus aligns with market projections gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 10 institutions, forecasting a trade surplus of US$1.95 billion for December 2023. While this surplus was lower than November's figure, the cumulative surplus for Indonesia reached US$36.93 billion by the end of 2023, representing a decrease of 33.46% compared to the same period last year.

Additionally, the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors maintained the BI-Rate at 6% on Wednesday, reflecting the central bank's commitment to economic and financial stability amidst global economic uncertainties. Governor Perry Warjiyo emphasized that this decision aimed to support domestic economic growth amid ongoing global economic volatility.

Looking ahead, both domestic and international factors will influence market sentiment. Domestically, BI will announce Indonesia's money supply (M2) for December 2023, providing insights into credit allocation and government spending. Meanwhile, the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data for Indonesia will be released, indicating the country's attractiveness to foreign investors.

Externally, the United States will release Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data for December 2023, offering insights into the labor market dynamics. Additionally, China's People's Bank of China (PBoC) will announce its prime lending rates for January 2024, reflecting ongoing efforts to support economic recovery amid challenges in the property sector.

Despite global economic uncertainties, Indonesia's positive trade balance and stable monetary policy provide a foundation for cautious optimism in the market. Investors will closely monitor upcoming data releases and external developments for insights into future market trends.

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